On the 26th of January 10 songs will compete to represent Denmark at the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest. Over the years we have seen more wins from starting position 10 than any other, but let’s take a look at the statistics to see just how it actually is.
It is often being mentioned that a later starting position is a big advantage at the Eurovision Song Contest with around 25 songs competing. At the same time it is mentioned that in shows with significantly less participants, like the Junior Eurovision Song Contest, it doesn’t have the same influence.
Since 2000 Denmark have regularly had 10 songs competing in its national final, Dansk Melodi Grand Prix. With such a low number it should be possible for the TV viewers to remember all the songs once the cast their vote for their favourite song, but still it is seen that song nr. 10 gives significantly more wins than any other starting position.
Below you can see the average placement for the starting positions in Dansk Melodi Grand Prix 2000 – 2012. 2003 is excluded as Denmark didn’t have a national final that year as it was not able to participate at the Eurovision Song Contest due to a bad result the year before.
|
Start nr. |
2000 | ’01 | ’02 | ’04 | ’05 | ’06 | ’07 | ’08 | ’09 | ’10 | ’11 | ’12 |
Avg. result |
Wins | Top3 |
| Nr.1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5,75 | 1 | 6 |
| Nr.2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7,33 | 1 | 3 |
| Nr.3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8,08 | 0 | 0 |
| Nr.4 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 5,92 | 1 | 5 |
| Nr.5 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7,58 | 0 | 3 |
| Nr.6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7,92 | 1 | 3 |
| Nr.7 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7,67 | 0 | 2 |
| Nr.8 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6,92 | 1 | 4 |
| Nr.9 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Nr.10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2,5 | 6 | 11 |
Note: Denmark have most of the years had a so-called super final within the final, which is a second round of voting for the songs that recieved most votes. The songs that didn’t qualify for this have been given 10 points in the calculation.
In 2007 and 2008 Denmark had two semi-finals before the final. Included in this is only the result of the actual final.
Analysm:
With an average placement of 2,5 nr. 10 is clearly the best starting position. In 12 years this position have given us a total of 6 winners – and only once, in 2005, did song nr. 10 not make it into top3. In 2013 Mohamed will be starting from this position making him almost certain of a top placement.
No other starting positions have such good records as nr. 10 does – and none of the others have given more than one victory over this 12 year period. Starting position nr. 1 and nr. 4 are with averages of 5,75 and 5,92 the next best starting positions. Nr. 1 have given 6 top3 positions and nr. 4 a total of 5.
Being somewhere around the middle with an odd number is not good in Denmark. Three starting positions have in this period, from 2000 to 2012, not given any victories; nr. 3, nr. 5 and nr. 7. Of those nr. 3 is the worst as it, as the only position, have not made any top3 results either.
When looking at the average result obtained from each starting position the worst position is also nr. 3 with an average of 8,08. This comes from 7 none super-final qualifiers, no top3 positions and the best placement achieved being a 5th place. In the 2013 Dansk Melodi Grand Prix Kate Hall will be trying what appears impossible, to win from starting position nr. 3.
For this year’s Danish final Brinck, who represented the country at the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest, is back. Taken into consideration he has won before, is among the best known names of this lot and comes with a song that stands clearly out from the rest, he might be mentioned as one of the favourites to win, but from starting position nr. 2 he surely doesn’t have the statistics on his side. It has given one victory, in 2008, so it is possible, but over these 12 years it has happen 7 times that the participant hasn’t made it to the so-called super final – and that includes the last years four years in a row.
If we only look at recent years the participants behind songs nr. 2,3,5 and 7 are in problems. No one has managed to make it to the second round of voting, the super-final, from these starting positions the last four years! One could add song nr. 8 as well to this list as from that starting position we haven’t see any qualifiers the last three years. With us having to go back to 2009 to find a super-finalists from any of these 5 starting positions half of the participants are suddenly, based on statistics, left with no chance of gaining any good result in the Danish final this coming Saturday.
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