Editorial: 2009 allocation draw analysis

A bit of luck in the draws can help a country towards winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Now that we know who have been allocated to which semi-finals it is time to start speculating about who has been given a bit of a walk over to the final and who is in for what appears to be a mission impossible.

Most of the speculating will start once we know in which order the 19 songs in each of the two semi-finals will perform, but it is possible already to have an idea about who stands a fair chance of qualifying. From first semi-final Turkey stands out. Given the diaspora and friendly voting from countries like Germany, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, United Kingdom etc. It appears that it is not a matter of if Turkey will qualify, but just if they will come first or second in this semi-final. Last year Sweden was close to not qualifying for the final as they only made it due to the jury selecting the 10th and last spot. Things look a bit lighter for Sweden this year as they are in the same semi-final as Finland and Iceland. The presence of Belgium added that United Kingdom and Germany are also voting in this group Sweden stands quite a good chance of qualifying. Another of the pre qualified countries Spain will also be voting in the first semi-final something that will benefit Andorra and Portugal. In general it seems that the first semi-final is giving the Western European countries quite a good chance of qualifying.

In the second semi-final the picture is the opposite. The Netherlands, Ireland, Norway and Denmark will have to stick together if they want a chance of qualifying. The last two might have life west in terms of the Baltic countries and the historical close relationship between those countries, but with all three of them in the same semi-final where also Ukraine, Poland and Moldova is it is unsure if that life west will save the two Scandinavian countries from drowning. Ireland might pull it off if they pick a traditional Irish song. Something as special as Dustin the Turkey will probably kill them. It is hard to see what the Netherlands can do with De Toppers as this kind of music traditionally would appeal more to countries like Germany and Sweden – both in the first semi-final. Greece and Cyprus is both in this second semi-final and although it has happened a few rare times that Greece didn’t give their highest points to Cyprus everyone knows that it doesn’t work the other way around. The 12 points from Cyprus to Greece every year are the most secure points in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest. The Balkan countries generally also benefit each other with high points and with Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia and Albania in the same semi-final it looks quite promising for them. Russia voting in the second semi-final just adds to that this group is likely to mainly bring Eastern European countries to the final.

A few surprises will probably happen, but the outcome of this draw should mean that a country like Turkey has nothing to worry about whereas Armenia will need a bit of luck to qualify from the first semi-final that could easily result in quite a lot of Western countries getting through. In the second semi-final the few Western European countries have the odds against them while Ukraine and Poland are left with a fairly good chance of making it.

Source: EuroVisionary
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