It feels like a tough job when it comes to predicting the 10 qualifiers from semi final 1. Looking at my past predictions I use to be able to pick out 8 out of 10 right. And after I’ve been watching the third and last rehearsal on the tv-screen in the press centre, I now think I should be able to live up to my previous record.
Moldova – I remember the first impression of the song was that I liked it but the act looked like quite a mess. A good opener but will people remember it after 17 songs? I think still think it is a qualifier but I am not as sure as I was before.
Russia – Bad drawing position but Russia never failed to qualify. This song seems to appeal to some people so I think it’s a qualifier.
Estonia – Sounding like nothing else in the competition can be an advantage but this song never gets really interesting I think. Latvia, Finland + jury votes should help but I do not think it’s enough for it to be a qualifier.
Slovakia – The song is pleasant but the problem is that it lacks a real hook.
The performance is excellent though and I think it has a chance to qualify. But it’s a borderline qualifier I think.
Finland – This is the surprise of semi final one for me. I wasn’t impressed at all by the performance in the finnish national final but this one looks and sounds great on the tv-screens. It leaves me with a warm feeling and could be one of the biggest surprises of the contest and a sure qualifier!
Latvia – While I like the song, I find it rally hard to say if it is a qualifier or not.
Gut feeling tells me that this is not a qualifier.
Serbia – The performance look ok. It can rely on big points from Bosnia, F.Y.R Macedonia, France, Germany and Greece and that
should be enough for it to qualify. So yes – it feels like a quite certain qualifier.
Bosnia – Vukašin delivers a good performance but the song is far to weak. Bosnia always qualified but I feel they are not going to make it this time. Bosnia is also missing some countries that usually votes for them in this semi final. Not a qualifier.
Poland – This song was always a kind of a mess to me and still is. I think it could be quite close to qualify despite that but I chose to declare it as a non-qualifier.
Belgium – Most people around here in Oslo seem to have this as a sure quaifier. I am however not sharing their opinon or maybe I am used biased cause I think the song is more boring than beautiful. Juries could help it but I chose to declare declare it as a non-qualifier.
Malta – It’s pleasant but I can’t see people actually voting for it.
Borderline qualifier – if the juries will save it but I am not sure that will be enough.
Albania – This sounded like a sure qualifier from the first time I heard it and I’ll stick to that opinion.
Greece – This has always been the favourite for me to win the semi final and still is. Qualifier in other words.
Portugal – A slow song, just like many other else. Filipa has excellent contact with the cameras and with the help of countries
that usually supports Portugal in the voting, I think this could be a borderline qualifier.
F.Y.R. Macedonia – Gojko is a great singer but the song is kind of boring, in the same way as Bosnia. Not a qualifier. Possibly bottom 3.
Belarus – A very sweet song (too sweet accoring to most people I met). I am not sure what to make out of it, but I think it stands a chance to qualify.
Iceland – Starting last is obviously a big advantage. Sure qualifier.
To sum it up, I think Greece is a safe bet for the win, and that Finland could be the surprise of the semi.
My prediction would be:
1.Greece
2.Iceland
3.Finland
4.Albania
5.Russia
6.Serbia
7.Belarus
8.Slovakia
9.Moldova
10.Portugal
11.Poland
12.Belgium
13.Malta
14.Estonia
15.Bosnia
16.Latvia
17.F.Y.R Macedonia
