Today we saw nine more performances from the first semifinal. It is too early to make a good verdict on the songs, but I think I have witnessed the first major disappointment and a positive surprise today.
And first out today was…
Bulgaria – who leaves a messy impression on me. It also happens to little between the singing/screaming I think. Can’t see this as a qualifier at the moment.
Israel – after the boring preview video this is better, might even qualify, but it should be a borderliner if so.
Iceland – This looked really good! I think it’s chances to qualify has improved.
FYROM – For me this is as exciting as watching Montenegro 07 & 08 I think (not a good thing). Still it does have a reasonable chance to qualify I think, after all FYROM only missed qualification once – last year.
Romania – Here comes the first real dissapointment this year for me. The singing is ok but I get the feeling that this simply is not enough and it has to improve a lot during the week. It’s no longer the sure qualifier I thought it was at first. Not a qualifier as it is now I think.
Finland – To compare "Falling down" with DJ Bobos "Vampires are alive" from 2007 is inviteable. I think this is a bit better performed but I am not convinced that it will sail through the final. This is another borderline qualifier I think.
Portugal – Now I did not see it Portugal as qualifier before but after watching the performance I see that it stands out quite a bit and I get this happy feeling from watching it. Todays performance made me change my mind – qualifier!
Malta – A good solid performance from Chiara. Qualifier
Bosnia – Looked good and this is my favourite to win the semfinal. I am a total sucker for balkan ballads (not the kind that Croatia will deliver tomorrow though) so I might overrate it. And I really like the moment when the group gets together and make a pose in front of the wind machine.
These are the qualifiers so far I think:
Bosnia (100 % sure)
Turkey (100%)
Armenia (99%)
Iceland (70%)
Malta (70%)
Portugal (70%)
Sweden (60%)
Belarus (55%)
Finland (53%)
Switzerland (50%, the jury choice I think)
FYROM (50%)
Montenegro (40%)
Israel (40%)
Romania (30%)
Belgium (30%)
Bulgaria (25%)
Czech republic (2%)
Andorra (1%)
Last year I got 8 out of 10 finalists right for the first semi and 6 out of 10 from the first semi, and I usually pick 7 out of 10 right if I look at my past predictions, so I would expect something similiar this year 🙂
Again – this was just the first rehearsal and so much can still happen. And will happen.
